Today’s Market Summary and Tomorrow’s Outlook 2023/8/17

Aug 17, 2023

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PP particles

Today, the domestic PP market has undergone a narrow consolidation, with some adjustments of 10-20 yuan/ton. The low opening and fluctuation of futures have limited guidance on the spot market, and traders’ enthusiasm for shipping is still good. Some offers have been slightly lowered, and downstream terminal demand is not good. Purchasing in the market is relatively cautious, and the trading atmosphere in the market is light, with a focus on negotiation for actual orders. Today, the mainstream wire drawing prices in North China are between 7280 and 7360 yuan/ton, in East China they are between 7300 and 7430 yuan/ton, and in South China they are between 7360 and 7450 yuan/ton.

Forecast: Today’s PP futures fluctuate and spot prices narrow range consolidation. Fundamentally speaking, PP parking devices have gradually returned and new maintenance devices have decreased, resulting in an increase in spot supply. However, due to the limited number of orders received by downstream factories and weak profitability, production enthusiasm has been significantly affected.

Therefore, cautious follow-up should be taken when selecting low prices for procurement in the market. Although the fundamental driving force of PP has continued to be insufficient recently, the high volatility of oil prices can still support the cost of PP. Based on this, Zhuochuang Information predicts that PP will maintain a narrow consolidation trend in the short term, but weak demand will constrain the pace of delivery volume. Taking East China wire drawing as an example, the estimated price range is 7300-7400 yuan/ton.

PVC powder

The PVC market for calcium carbide method in East China has undergone narrow consolidation, with moderate trading volume. Futures fluctuated weakly during the trading session, with some advantages in market point pricing, but the market quotation is relatively chaotic, with both V01 and V09 sources of goods. Therefore, the market has a large price difference between high and low prices, with downstream high prices conflicting and mainly buying on dips.

Today, the comprehensive evaluation of the mainstream trading range of the East China 5 spot exchange warehouse is between 6020-6110 yuan/ton, with some even higher. There are not many sources of goods in the East China Ethylene Law Market, and the offer is at a high price with average trading volume. Delivered to Changzhou, the Qilu 1000 model has a reference price of 6450 yuan/ton, and Liancheng has a reference price of around 6750 yuan/ton.

Prediction: The spot price of PVC will slightly decrease today, with low enthusiasm for downstream procurement and a weak trading atmosphere in the market. At the beginning of the week, domestic PVC powder enterprises’ export orders improved, and after the subsequent increase in export quotations, orders became weaker.

It is expected that there will be no significant improvement in export orders next week. Domestic downstream demand is still weak, and product companies have resistance towards high priced raw materials. In the macro term, the main focus is on digesting the positive results from the early stage. Currently, some market participants are still in a wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the PVC market price range will be weak and volatile next week. It is expected that the mainstream trading range of the East China SG-5 will be between 6000-6150 yuan/ton next week.