The real estate is expected to be repaired, and the short-term plastic is stronger

Nov 28, 2022

Leave a message

Content summary

Methanol: This week, the domestic methanol market showed a different trend again, with strong ports and relatively weak trend of integration. On the mainland, the supply side has been relatively stable in the near future, the support for coal costs has weakened, the demand side has remained depressed, and the overall mainland has weakened in the short term or in shock due to high freight rates. The port will maintain the current linkage, but the basis will weaken under the delivery logic, the short-term port demand will weaken, and the probability of subsequent weakness is expected to be large. It is expected that the mainland will stabilize in the short term and fall again in the medium and long term.

LLDPE. In addition, there are few maintenance devices in the near future, but the demand for packaging film has not improved, so it is difficult to support the PE price. Most of the downstream industry started at a high level, but the follow-up of new orders slowed down, and the market expectation was biased. In general, PE prices were weak in the short term.

PP. The cost is slightly supported, the planned maintenance is reduced in the short term, and the supply is increased. In BOPP, plastic knitting, household appliances and other industries, due to the high price of raw materials, the profits of product enterprises continue to compress, the demand follows up moderately, and the resistance is strong. After the festival, the construction starts decline, and the demand side may continue to be depressed. It is expected that the overall price of PP will be adjusted by shocks next week.

PVC: In October, the decline in real estate investment sales expanded, the decline in new construction narrowed, the land market remained at a low level, and the real estate boom index continued to decline. Infrastructure projects are slowly promoted due to multiple factors, and downstream demand continues to be sluggish. PVC prices rose this week due to market sentiment, but the atmosphere of the spot market was light. The price followed the futures change, and the downstream was cautious. In the near future, calcium carbide price support has weakened slightly, but the recovery of economic demand is less than expected. The demand inventory continues to accumulate, higher than the level in the past few years. The expected improvement of PVC demand is weak, and it is expected to continue to rise significantly.

Market trends

·The PMI of Caixin’s manufacturing industry in November was 49.4, up 0.2 percentage points from October, continuing the contraction trend since August, indicating that the production and operation of the manufacturing industry is still weak. Wang Zhe, senior economist of Caixin think-tank, said that since October, the epidemic has spread in many provinces and cities, and the impact on the economy has become increasingly obvious. How to balance epidemic prevention and control and economic development has once again become a core issue. Under the triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations, the employment index has been at a low level for a long time. The employment downturn and the triple pressures form a negative feedback. The market demands policies to promote employment and stabilize domestic demand. At the policy level, we should strengthen coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, focus on expanding domestic demand, and raise the level of low-income groups.

·Citic Securities said that the manufacturing industry’s prosperity fell to 48.0% in November, which was in the contraction range for two consecutive months. At the National General Meeting held on November 22, it was deployed to fully implement a package of policies and follow-up measures to stabilize the economy and consolidate the basis for economic stability. It is expected that after the epidemic situation stabilizes, with the policy further exerting its effect, the subsequent manufacturing PMI and non manufacturing PMI will rise.