Plastics: Today’s Market Summary and Tomorrow’s Outlook June 27, 2023

Jun 27, 2023

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PVC powder

Today, the price of the domestic PVC market fell, and the trading atmosphere in the Spot market improved slightly. In East China, the PVC market price of calcium carbide method fell, and trading slightly improved. Futures fluctuate downward, with most traders trading at point prices, with a majority of basis ranging from -150 to 50. Downstream demand is average, with buying on dips and some orders around 5710 points.

Today, the comprehensive evaluation of the mainstream trading range of the East China 5 spot exchange warehouse is between 5550 and 5650 yuan/ton, with some even higher. The quotation for PVC produced by East China Ethylene Process has been steadily lowered, but some brands have limited supply and average delivery. Delivery to Changzhou, Qilu 1000 model reference 5750 yuan/ton, Liancheng delivery 5950 yuan/ton.

Forecast: PVC futures will decline today, with spot prices following suit, and the trading atmosphere in some regions will slightly improve. Recently, some downstream product enterprises have started operating on a low level, and subsequent orders have not improved. The enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is not high, and they are resistant to high priced raw materials. PVC enterprises have recently received limited orders for exports, and overall demand is still poor.

The price of calcium carbide is temporarily stable, and this week’s price may remain stable. The cost of PVC may not change much in the short term. At present, there is a lack of positive macro news, and market participants have a cautious mindset. They expect the short-term PVC market to fluctuate mainly, and it is expected that the mainstream trading range of East China SG-5 will be between 5550 and 5650 yuan/ton tomorrow.

PE

This week, domestic polyethylene prices fluctuated and rose. During the week, new high-pressure and other devices of Yanshan Petrochemical were shut down, and the maintenance losses of petrochemical devices continued to increase. The supply pressure of domestic goods decreased. The supply of some goods, represented by HDPE wire drawing varieties, continues to be tight, while some downstream factories purchase and replenish their warehouses in an appropriate amount before the holiday, supporting petrochemical and trading companies to offer high prices.

However, terminal demand is still in the off-season, limiting the overall increase in spot prices. The current mainstream linear price ranges from 7830 to 8300 yuan/ton, with an increase of 30-150 yuan/ton compared to last Thursday’s closing price; The high-pressure mainstream price ranges from 8300 to 8700 yuan/ton, with most prices rising, with fluctuations ranging from 20 to 120 yuan/ton compared to last Thursday’s closing price; The prices of various low-pressure varieties have mostly increased, with fluctuations ranging from 10 to 770 yuan/ton compared to last Thursday’s closing price.

Forecast: It is expected that the LLDPE market will be prone to decline but difficult to rise next week, with mainstream prices ranging from 7800 to 8200 yuan/ton. The fluctuation of oil prices has limited impact on the market. In terms of supply, the planned maintenance loss of domestic PE next week is 87800 tons, an increase of 16000 tons month on month. Among them, the loss of LLDPE is 28100 tons, an increase of 0400 tons month on month, and the domestic supply is temporarily stable;

After the holiday, with the arrival of goods from the United States and the Middle East, imports are expected to increase; The accumulation of inertia during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday has put pressure on the supply side. In terms of demand, the increase in orders for greenhouse films is limited, downstream factories are cautious in starting and stocking, and the efforts to replenish warehouses after holidays are weak. In summary, prices are prone to decline but difficult to rise after the holiday.