Plastic Market Forecast

Dec 19, 2023

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The attack by the Hussain armed forces on ships in the Red Sea has raised concerns about oil supply disruptions, with international oil prices reaching a two-week high, despite sufficient supply and doubts about Russia’s export reduction plan in December limiting the increase in oil prices. On Monday (December 18th), the settlement price of West Texas light crude oil futures for January 2024 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $72.47 per barrel, an increase of $1.04 or 1.46% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $70.64 to $74.26; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange for February 2024 is $77.95 per barrel, an increase of $1.40 or 1.83% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $75.76-79.51.

【 PE Market 】Yesterday, the price of polyethylene in the PE market mostly increased, with a range of 10-100 yuan/ton and a linear transaction price of 8050-8600 yuan/ton. Traders are selling at high prices, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The actual transaction is negotiated.

Today’s forecast: It is expected that short-term market prices will continue to fluctuate.

【 PP Market 】The PP market saw a slight drop in polypropylene prices yesterday, but the current market lacks active guidance and has entered a downward channel. On the supply side, the high maintenance level supports the further decline of market prices, but on the demand side, the enthusiasm for replenishing inventory has decreased, market transactions are average, and there is a greater willingness to make concessions. The mainstream of wire drawing in East China ranges from 7430 to 7500 yuan/ton.

Today’s forecast: It is expected that the market will continue to operate horizontally and there will not be much improvement in the market.

【 PVC Market 】 Yesterday, PVC futures opened low and fluctuated, with limited fluctuations in spot market quotes and average shipments from merchants. Transactions were negotiated. PVC production enterprises have steadily lowered their quotations, with some enterprises still focusing on closing down. Downstream product enterprises have not started production high, and demand is light. They are just waiting to see what they need. Market reference: There is not much change in the PVC market price in Hebei region. The reference price for calcium carbide method 5-type material, including tax, is around 5630-5680 yuan/ton in spot exchange. The reference price for Inner Mongolia material delivery is around 5400-5450 yuan/ton, which is relatively chaotic. Actual transactions are subject to negotiated prices.

Today’s forecast: In the short term, the PVC market will be dominated by stable adjustment.

【 ABS Market 】Recently, the ABS market has experienced frequent fluctuations in raw material prices, while there have been no bright spots in supply and demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the stalemate is difficult to break. Businesses may continue to operate according to market trends. The mainstream price for domestic supply of ABS (acrylonitrile butadiene styrene) in the East China market is between 9300 and 10300 yuan/ton.

Today’s forecast: It is expected that the ABS market will experience narrow range fluctuations today