China’s Polycarbonate Industry Is Under Continuous Pressure.

Nov 17, 2021

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Recently, the polycarbonate (PC) market is cold, weak operation, as of the end of June, the price has fallen to 24,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), compared with the highest in the year of nearly 28,500 yuan in mid-April, has shrunk by 16% . In the short term, the upstream support is weak, downstream demand is flat, and the PC will maintain a weakness; in a medium and long term, with the continuous investment of future new devices, the domestic PC market will be more serious, and the industry will continue to carry up pressure.

At present, there is no amount of air decline in the market, and the downstream epoxy resin and PC weak operation, the demand is sluggish, and it is expected to continue the decline; the supply surface, Shanghai Mitsubishi and Kiosheng equipment will be restarted, and the startup will gradually recover. Long-term parking companies have recently rebooted, and the market supply will continue to increase; in the demand surface, the terminal is low, but the downstream looks down the market, the industry is cautious, just need to purchase a small amount, the trading is limited. In summary, a variety of bad factors are superimposed, and it is expected that the domestic PC market price is difficult to change, and it will continue to be weak in the last period of time.

According to the statistics of chemical online (www.chemsino.com) Super over 20%. As domestic companies have built new devices, China’s polycarbonate production capacity will further increase. In the first half of this year, there is a 260,000 ton / annual device of Zhejiang Petrochemical, with an increase in total capacity to nearly 2 million tons / year.

With the continuous expansion of China’s PC production capacity, the industry is generally started to be sluggish. According to statistics, in 2019, the average operating rate of the domestic PC industry was nearly 70%, while 2020 fell sharply to about 50% low level; in 2021, the raw bisphenol A continued to rise, and the PC was restricted, resulting in lack of increase, The difference between the two (the price of PC is once in the industry), the industry’s loss is serious, so the work is still low, January-May, the domestic PC industry’s starting rate is slightly fell from the same period last year.

On the other hand, due to the high quality of domestic new production equipment, the problem of homogenization is higher. Relatively speaking, low-end materials are more susceptible to cost, and in the decline is more difficult. Therefore, in April 2020, in the new version of the industrial adjustment guidance directory, polycarbonate production is no longer included in the “Encourage” project.

In the medium and long term, the PC industry also faces great challenges. In the supply, only 260,000 tons / year in China, there is still 260,000 tons / year in China, Hainan Huasheng 260,000 tons / year and flat coal gimma 100,000 tons / year, a total of 620,000 tons / annual device Investment Production Plan, if the above capacity can be put into production as scheduled, the excessive situation in China will be more serious. It is expected that by 2025, it is expected to exceed 4.5 million tons / year, and the average growth rate will still exceed 20%. In the context of the demand, and the downstream demand is difficult to optimize, the growth rate of domestic polycarbonate will be maintained at 3% -5%, far below capacity, more than 330 to 2025 Tens of tons.

Under the background, the seller’s market will be more prominent, the market price is fierce, the cost of enterprise cost is huge, and the reduction and maintenance operation will become a normal, causing waste of production capacity and is difficult to profit. In view, the domestic PC industry will continue to carry it up.