A Brief Analysis Of The Rise And Fall Of The Main Plastic Products in A Week

Mar 07, 2023

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Brief description of plastic products:

PP : The PP market fell first and then rose this week. The international crude oil price was relatively strong and consolidated during the week. The futures fluctuated. The ex-factory prices of the two oils were adjusted. The petrochemical inventory was not smooth. The merchants’ offer followed the operation. The downstream demand was still recovering slowly. The spot price also fell and then fell back. In terms of supply, the number of overhauled devices continued to increase this week, and the amount of overhaul losses increased. In the early stage of the week, the landing devices successively produced qualified products, releasing output to the market, and the pressure on the supply side increased. Downstream demand has recovered steadily, and the terminal is affected by the support of the futures market and the cost side, so it is prudent to take the goods. In terms of export, overseas devices recovered within the week, prices fell, inquiries decreased, and exchange rate changes were not significant for export. The macro real estate sector continued to boost news. Recently, the domestic PP market activity has increased significantly. Although the fundamentals are temporarily lack of impact on the price drive, on the whole, the market is expected to be mostly good in the later stage, and the terminal will replenish the stock one after another. Next week, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate, waiting for the recovery of demand.

PE: The domestic polyethylene market rose slightly this week. The trend of crude oil futures is stronger, and the cost support of polyethylene is strengthened; The futures price fluctuated upward, and the market was bullish. Some minor repairs were added to the overhaul device, mostly for recent driving, and the pressure on output was slightly relieved; In the peak season of plastic film demand, some construction projects have been improved, and orders have been followed up slowly; From the perspective of market price, as of the end of this week, compared with the same period last week, the LLDPE market rose by 80 yuan/ton in North China, 50 yuan/ton in East China and 50 yuan/ton in South China. 

PVC: This week, the domestic PVC market showed a high volatility and downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the opening price was around 6520. Due to the downward trend of crude oil, the atmosphere in the market was lowered, and then the price rose in a narrow range after the recovery of crude oil price. The closing price on Thursday was 6387 yuan/ton. From a regional perspective, the five-type mainstream quotation in Guangzhou is 6350-6430 yuan/ton, and the five-type mainstream quotation in Hangzhou is 6340-6430 yuan/ton; Shandong’s five-type mainstream quotation is 6250-6300 yuan/ton. In terms of raw materials, the domestic carbide ex-factory market price has stopped falling and risen, and the mainstream price in the northwest region is 3400-3600 yuan/ton. Recently, coal prices have risen, and cost support has strengthened. On the supply side, there is no centralized maintenance factory for PVC in the short term, the operating rate remains high in the short term, and the output continues to increase. Although it is in the consumption inventory period, the inventory decline is slow, and the supply side is still in a loose state. This week, the market price of PVC still fluctuates with the narrow range of futures, and there is not enough power to increase in the market, and the industry is mostly wait-and-see, and the oversupply of PVC fundamentals will continue; In terms of demand, although the overall downstream manufacturers have basically resumed work and production, the demand of the real estate and other end markets has not improved significantly, and the downstream new orders are limited. There is no good news in the short term, and the demand side may continue to be weak and stable; Internationally, India’s demand slows down, traders resist high prices, and the export market may become stable.

ABS: The ABS market rebounded after falling this week. The raw material market was weak, and the participants were not confident enough, so the actual trading remained cautious. The volatility of the East China market is relatively small, and it is concentrated in the need for negotiation. Part of the South China market was stable and weak. Some manufacturers in the north have slightly reduced the factory price, while the factory prices of Lihuayi, Jinfa and Haijiang have been reduced. The merchants have a cautious wait-and-see attitude, the overall trading atmosphere is light, and the delivery level needs to be improved. Under the dual pressure of cost and sales, some ABS manufacturers reduced their production slightly. However, due to the consideration of market share, the decline in construction was limited. The industry will continue to be in a state of high supply and high inventory. Some large downstream factories are not active in the purchase of goods in March. They have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the pace of pre-sale by ABS manufacturers has slowed down. The space for improvement of fundamentals is limited, new capacity continues to be released, prices may be slightly weaker during stability, and the ABS market or narrow-cap consolidation operation.