PVC Prices Have Seen Significant Increases, And Inventory Remains High
Aug 04, 2023
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The price of calcium carbide remains relatively low, and PVC profits remain high, which has a positive impact on PVC supply. Moreover, the overall trend of equipment maintenance is downward, and the start of construction will increase at a faster pace.
The terminal demand is still insufficient. Due to the limitation of the total decline in real estate demand and the generally slow construction progress, downstream construction has not been able to rise. In the off-season of summer demand, construction continues to decline slightly and remains at a relatively low level.
Recently, inventory has remained high and there is significant inventory pressure. PVC supply is gradually increasing, demand remains weak, inventory is at a high level, cost support is moving downwards, and fundamentals are still relatively empty.
Recently, there has been a significant increase in PVC prices, mainly due to macroeconomic real estate policy incentives and good export demand. However, this cannot change the current supply and demand pattern of PVC. Therefore, it is believed that the significant price increase is mainly due to a temporary lack of competitors.
PP
Wire drawing spot price is 7340 yuan/ton. In early August, Donghua Maoming and Ningbo Jinfa # 1 planned test runs; Part of the early maintenance equipment has gradually started to recover, and the overall production schedule of PP has rebounded month on month, while the production schedule of standard product wire drawing has increased; The standard import window is closed; The prices of raw materials and propane have strengthened month on month compared to the previous period, and the cost side has strengthened. The overall downstream construction is not as good as in previous years, with a slight improvement compared to the previous year, but the profit transmission is not smooth, and downstream profits have narrowed.
Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the previous year, with a petrochemical inventory of 57.5, -1. Upstream PDH production profit narrows; The profit level of powder production improved month on month; PP exit window closed; BOPP’s profit is at a lower level in previous years. 09 contract basis -30 yuan/ton; 9-1 price difference of about 30 yuan/ton; Narrowing the price difference between copolymerization and wire drawing; The price difference of granular powder is at a normal level; The main contract price difference of L-PP is about 800 yuan/ton.
PP inventory pressure is relatively low, and the market has expectations for future demand, resulting in short-term strong fluctuations in PP prices; With the recovery of PP maintenance equipment and the release of new production capacity, the contradiction between supply and demand for PP has intensified. It is recommended to treat it as empty in the long run, and pay attention to the deployment of PP new equipment, maintenance recovery, and demand improvement.
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