Plastics: Today’s Market Summary And Tomorrow’s Outlook

Sep 09, 2022

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PE

This week, the domestic polyethylene market price continued to rise. The price rise in the ethylene market has strongly boosted the mentality of participants in the polyethylene market. At the same time, the trend of linear futures is strong, petrochemical and traders have raised their prices and made offers one after another, downstream factories have purchased moderately, and the transaction atmosphere in the spot market has improved. However, near the weekend, with the decline of crude oil price and the aggravation of RMB exchange rate fluctuation and other factors, the atmosphere of polyethylene spot market has cooled down, and the spot offer in some regions has declined slightly, so buyers and sellers in the market are watching cautiously. The current linear mainstream price is 8050-8400 yuan / ton, with an increase of 200-300 yuan / ton; The high-voltage mainstream price is 9600-10100 yuan / ton, with an increase of 300-550 yuan / ton; Most of the low-voltage varieties have gone up in price, with a range of 50-200 yuan / ton.

Forecast: Zhuo Chuang information predicts that the PE market price next week will be dominated by strong fluctuations. Taking LLDPE as an example, the mainstream price is expected to be 8100-8400 yuan / ton. Next week’s oil price mainly fluctuates widely, and its support for the PE market is weak. From the perspective of supply, PE inventory pressure has decreased, petrochemical inventory, port inventory and social inventory have decreased to a certain extent, and import to Hong Kong is expected to increase in September. The overhaul of refining and chemical enterprises will continue to decrease next week. It is preliminarily estimated that the loss of PE overhaul next week will be 53600 tons, with a month on month decrease of 14900 tons. Agricultural film production has gradually entered the traditional peak season, the orders for greenhouse film have continued to increase, and the industry’s operation has slowly increased. In the slow recovery of the downstream demand of other PE products, we mainly maintain the just needed procurement.

PP granules

Domestic polypropylene prices rose slightly this week. As of this Thursday, the average price of East China wire drawing was 7990 yuan / ton, an increase of 56 yuan / ton or 0.71% over the average price last week, which was narrower than the previous week. The price difference in the drawing area is not prominent. In terms of varieties, the price difference between drawing and low melting copolymerization does not change much. At the beginning of the week, polypropylene futures surged, petrochemical and traders raised prices and showed low willingness to give up profits. In the peak season, downstream orders were expected to follow up step by step. At the beginning of the month, terminal factories staged replenishment, and market transactions were OK. Near the weekend, the price of upstream crude oil dropped significantly, dragging down market sentiment. Polypropylene futures also showed a slight pullback, spot prices eased slightly, and the market transaction weakened after the completion of downstream procurement.

Forecast: the domestic polypropylene market will rise slightly this week. It is expected that the market will narrow next week and some will fall. Take East China wire drawing as an example, it is estimated that the price operation range is 7950-8100 yuan / ton. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate greatly next week, but there is a possibility of rebound, and it is expected that the support for polypropylene cost will be strengthened. There are new maintenance devices and restart devices on the supply side, but the new capacity is expected to have an impact, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. From the perspective of demand, the expected consumption of downstream products after the holiday is mainly pre holiday stock, and the expected release of short-term just demand is limited, which has limited support for the market. In general, the short-term fundamental performance of the market is expected to be OK, and there is still a strong expectation at the superimposed cost end. Based on this, it is expected that the market will be mainly sorted out in a narrow range next week, and some will fall.